The All Progressives Congress, APC, is expected to dominate the House of Assembly election in Ekiti State on March 18, 2023, owing to Governor Biodun Oyebanji’s strong performance and the party’s popularity among voters.
The Governor has proven the skeptics incorrect over the previous five months by accomplishing some historic feats in the civil service.
In fact, this was reflected in the outcome of the presidential and National Assembly elections on February 25, 2023, in which the APC overwhelmingly won for the President-elect, Asiwaju Bola Ahmed Tinubu, while also winning all three Senate and six House of Representatives seats, with the main opposition Peoples Democratic Party, PDP, winning none.
Looking at the election trajectories in Ekiti since 1999, the ruling party has consistently dominated the House of Assembly. Under the Otunba Niyi Adebayo-led administration in 1999, the Alliance for Democracy gained nearly all of the seats in the legislature. In 2003, the PDP’s Ayo Fayose-led administration accomplished the same accomplishment.
The last time two parties had a same number of legislators, dubbed ’13-13,’ was under Engr Segun Oni’s government in 2007. The PDP and the defunct Action Congress of Nigeria paraded 13 MPs apiece, keeping the parliament tense for four years.
This oddity was brought to light by the fact that Major General Adetunji Olurin, designated by President Olusegun Obasanjo as the head of emergency administration following Fayose’s impeachment, handled the 2007 elections in Ekiti, which offered equal leverage to all parties.
Dr Kayode Fayemi’s magic wand, which cleared all the seats in the 2011 and 2019 elections, were plain and magnified testaments to the fact that the ruling party always holds the ace in every assembly vote in Ekiti.
The apparent polarization of the biggest opposition party, the PDP, may also aid the ruling party. The unwillingness of strong party members and leaders to commit to buoying the party’s chances in elections has been a major encumbrance militating against the party.
Besides the wide margin of winning in the last presidential poll, the ruling party won in unexpected units and wards in Ekiti, which signalled that the PDP was gradually waning and emasculating.
As of now, the Fayose-led group is loyal to the Rivers State Governor, Nyesom Wike. This group doesn’t see eye-to-eye with those loyal to the party’s presidential candidate, Alhaji Abubakar Atiku.
Most disturbing is the fact that a chunk of party’s opinion moulders and power-wielders, are also hobnobbing with Segun Oni-led Social Democratic Party.
By all indications, the trio of APC, PDP and SDP fielded candidates across the 26 state constituencies in Ekiti. The vote bank that should ordinarily be meant for the PDP would be shared with SDP and the two opposition parties may not go far, unless a miracle happens.
Though, as strong and coordinated as APC seems to be, the party is laced with a lot of internal crises. Some of the returning candidates, like the Deputy Speaker, Hon. Hakeem Jamiu, Hon. Adeoye Aribasoye in Ikole constituency 2, Hon Abiodun Fawekun in Ido/Osi constituency 1, Hon. Teju Okuyiga in Gbonyin constituency and Hon. Lateef Akanle in Ekiti East Constituency 2, are all facing stiff and heated opposition.
The same scenario is fiercely playing out in Ekiti West constituency 2, where Hon Bode Johnson Oyekola is the APC candidate. Some powder brokers in the constituency are strongly averse to the alleged brazen fashion the candidate was imposed by a former commissioner in the council. This is also eliciting tension and anti-party activities.
Ordinarily, all these constituencies could have been windows of opportunities for the opposition to borrow into the ruling party, but the factional crisis in PDP and the debilitating effect of the fallout of the governorship poll, where Oni lost out, may rob the SDP of such opportunity.
While the PDP seems not disturbed by its internal crisis, which signalled that the party has no stake in the assembly election, the APC has intensified fence-mending efforts to cement its fold.
Recently, the Deputy Governor, Mrs Monisade Afuye visited some constituencies to interface with party stakeholders and appealed passionately to them to forget whatever happened at the primaries and work for all the candidates.
Mrs Afuye described the legislature as the intellectual hub of government and lubricant for the smooth running of government by the executive.
She warned that Governor Oyebanji will find it herculean to administer if the opposition maintains the majority or has equal strength or parades a simple minority in the assembly, boasting that the party is resolute to clear all the 26 assembly seats to lubricate all frictions for Oyebanji.
With these factors, the APC may likely have a field day on Saturday, by winning at least 22 out of the 26 seats.
